AMITIAE - Wednesday 27 April 2016
Cassandra: Wall Street Still Lacking the Skills to Drive Apple
By Graham K. Rogers
My driver either didn't understand that removing the foot from the accelerator would slow the car (engine braking), or he was having a constant crisis of confidence. There we were on a straight road, vehicles ahead moving away: dab. Approach a bridge: dab up and another dab down. Another car went past: dab, dab. And so on. I kept wanting to shout at him, "Leave the bloody brakes alone" but I expect he would have had no idea what I was talking about.
The sales of devices were down as expected: Q2 is rarely as good as Q1, although Q2 last year was exceptional. Dab. Mac Sales down by 400,000 when the rest of the PC industry is also seeing massive contraction. Dab. iPad sales actually rose when Wall Street is convinced that market is doomed. Dab. iPhone sales did not include the iPhone SE and even Tim Cook said that the device would be lower. And they were. Dab, dab.
Other figures are revealing as well: more about Wall Street than Apple. The Apple Watch is a failure after its first year, with estimated sales of $6 billion. Rolex sells $5 billion. Dab. Apple Music now has 13 million subscribers, bringing in $9.99 a month ($15.99 for families), although some markets, like Thailand where I am have lower fees (and less music). About $10 x 13 million? Dab. iCloud also has a continuing income scenario with Apple's "1 billion active devices" (iMore), that includes iCloud for photos, documents and other synchronisation: "a source of recurring revenue that is growing independent of the unit shipments that we report every three months." Dab.
There are also other markets that are just being tapped, particularly in Asia, and certainly including India where the potential for growth (unlike perhaps the US market) is large. Dab, dab.
Already there have been calls for Tim Cook's replacement, who always carries the cross that he is not Steve Jobs. Dab. Analaysts forget of course, that when Jobs was CEO, they were pretty critical of him too. Dab, dab.
Graham K. Rogers teaches at the Faculty of Engineering, Mahidol University in Thailand. He wrote in the Bangkok Post, Database supplement on IT subjects. For the last seven years of Database he wrote a column on Apple and Macs. He is now continuing that in the Bangkok Post supplement, Life.
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