AMITIAE - Monday 6 May 2013


Cassandra - Monday Review: It will Soon be Friday


apple and chopsticks



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By Graham K. Rogers


Cassandra


Opening Gambit

Apple, taxes and another thin NYTimes attack. Adam Smith cheers for Apple. Stats and Apple's share of the smartphone market. iOS 7, OS X: no delays. Apple's iOS is the new Windows: think about it. Horace Dediu on Apple and on firing Tim Cook (advice for neophytes). The iPhone and photography. Microsoft, Motorola, Google and Apple on FRAND and RAND patents. Comparison of prices between the Apple US Store and the online store for Thailand. True Visions: A for inertia.


Apple Stuff

The New York Times must have a thing about Apple. Maybe it is East Coast versus West Coast. We went all through the Mike Daisy-inspired attacks on Apple because of perceived Foxconn staffing shortcomings, although the articles conveniently failed to focus on other American companies like Dell, HP and Microsoft that used the same facilities.

They recently also targetted Apple because of iPhone thefts - how do you blame a company for theft of its products - and in between there have been countless examples of error, fudging and innuendo. A couple of those erroneous pieces have concerned Apple and its payments of taxes. Like many corporations, the company would be wrong not to use the legislation available and avoid paying taxes when legallly possible, or minimise the amounts of tax they have to pay. That is good corporate governance.

Not for the NYTimes, at least not when Apple is involved; and certainly not when Apple has decided to borrow billions (as several Wall Street analysts had suggested they should) that has the effect of reducing the taxes Apple has to pay: at least in the long run. But then Apple is in it for the long run which may not be the case for the NYTimes with the way newspapers are folding these days.

An article by Floyd Norris on Apple and taxes, begins by a comparison to a decades old scam conducted by an Italian company and then brings in Bernie Madoff, but as MacDaily News reports, it is not until the 5th paragraph that the comparison is negated, but right away it is back on the attack by suggesting that "Apple has been a pioneer in tactics to avoid paying taxes to Uncle Sam", which really is not true. The MDN article has a paragraph by paragraph deconstruction of the almost-baseless NYTimes article


Another view of Apple's plan comes from Tim Worstall of the Adam Smith Institute who points out that Apple is playing a clever game in getting around some of the US corporate tax rules. He explains (as I have before) about the $100 billiion abroad that Apple cannot realistically repatriate (and hence give to shareholders by way of dividends) and why borrowing $17 billion, then paying some of that out is a smart way to get round the rules. As would be expected from someone writing for the Adam Smith Institute, he is critical of current laws on corporate taxation and applauds Apple's tactics [My source for this was MacDaily News.]

However, Jim Armitage at The Independent thinks that some people should be amazed that a company that barely existed 2 decades ago (Apple) would borrow $17 billion. He buys into the fading Apple meme and adds that "For all Apple's famous lack of debt, no private company is that much of a safe bet." Not just lack of debt Jim, more than $150 billion sitting doing almost nothing. Apple seems to be making the cash work for its investors.


It always depends on whom you read and how the statistics are being interpreted, but Roger Cheng writes about another survey, this time from ComScore who report that iPhone franchise captured 39% of the U.S. smartphone market in the first quarter with Samsung at 21.7%. Apple experienced a rise of 3% with Samsung increasing slightly. Despite these numbers, Apple is still rumoured to be losing its edge. Some loss.


Last week there were lots of reports, started by a Bloomberg item, that seemed to suggest that iOS 7 was to be delayed. Until September. Which would be the same schedule for previous versions of iOS (e.g. 1OS 6 - 20 September last year). Now that the dust has settled on that non-story and a number of commentators should be red faced, we are now hearing that, because iOS 7 has the priority, engineers are being pulled off working on OS X 10.9 and that is delayed. Not so. Peter Cohen on iMore writes that there cannot be a delay as there is no shipping date; and we also know that versions of iOS 7 and OS X will be available at WWDC. Fall is the likely shipping date for both he suggests.


I nearly choked when I saw the headline, but when I clicked on the link and saw the author was Daniel Eran Dilger, "Apple's iOS is the new Windows" was not looking so bad. What he argues, with a lot of support (as is his way), is that while Windows was so omnipresent in the desktop arena until fairly recently, despite an apparently widespread use of Android, iOS is what most use. Use being the operative word. Samsung has tried them all, he tells us and now Samsung has gained a level of profits equal to the industry 5 years ago. However, Apple has created twice that value: Samsung has the old market for phones while Apple has the new smartphone market: the Windows of our modern era.

The article is quite long as Dilger does bring in so much support for what he posits, but the stickiness of the product (the idea that keeps users tied to a system) is the key and Apple's vertical integration (OS X, iTunes, Macs, iOS devices and apps) has leverage that others dream of. Google's lax management of Android's software platform has resulted in an app platform that isn't sticky enough to keep Android customers from upgrading to iOS.


A lot of analysts have written about a cheap iPhone, some saying Apple "needs" this or "must" make such a device. I sigh or groan when I read such crap as these high-paid analysts have just proved to me that they know little (or nothing) about how Apple works. Perhaps I should remind you about that article I linked to on Friday in the extra Cassandra column (Apple, iOS 7 and Uncritical Reporting): drive by analysts by Ernie Varitmos.

Other devastating comments came from Horace Dediu who is a highly regarded (real) analyst. He was interviewed recently by Martin Bryant on The Next Web while he was in Australia. This is worth looking at for some of his comments on the recent pressures on Apple. He has some interesting comments on bloggers and analysts and his comment on those who suggest that Tim Cook should not be CEO of Apple, is worth inscribing in stone: "Anyone suggesting Tim Cook should be fired is a neophyte" which sort of goes back to the words of Ernie Varitmos and those I have made concerning arriviste commentators.

I do not concede that a cheap iPhone is a likely product, but Neil Hughes reports that some feel the release of an iPad mini when there was already an iPad, may be a clue as to how Apple could proceed with a cheaper version of an iPhone. The argument that analysts from Morgan Stanley make is well presented, but like many in the financial world, they argue from the point of view that Apple should move into the mainstream or its ecosystem advantage is likely to be eroded. See Dilger in the article a couple of paragraphs above.


A lot of people do not regard the iPhone as a valid camera. I tend to ignore these, as these devices, as well as the iPad are a real photographic device for many people, along with the other smartphones and tablet devices that a few people have. Go into any area where people congregate, or any sporting event, or even car accidents and there will be those with their devices. Like the tiny plastic cameras of the 1970s, not everyone wants or can afford a DSLR camera (although one of my colleagues still uses an analog Leica), this is what some people use.

Actually it is not "some" as Apple put out an advertisement last week, Andrew Partner reports on Fortune, which has one line of dialogue: "Every day, more photos are taken with the iPhone than any other camera," which adds new significance to the iPhone, its apps and to the reviews of those apps. The article has a link to the video (on YouTube). As he writes, the add is beautiful. [My source for this was MacDaily News.]


While a DSLR camera may be needed for a fashion shoot, Steven Sande on TUAW reports on Rene Ritchie's work in New York right now where the iPhone camera is being used as a way to set up and check. Before, photographers (or their assistants) would have used Polaroid cameras, but the iPhone does it quicker and better.


On Friday I took a look at some news concerning malware code that was in an app. It was actually in the metadata of an included MP3 file and as such on the iPhone had no way of being executed. Dan Goodin on Ars Technica took the time to analyse the situation and had some feedback from experts on the low risk factor, but like others questions the process that was used at Apple that passed this app. I am sure that since the Friday report, Apple has made some changes, but neither I nor Dan Goodin will know about that with the opaque nature of the process: and long may that remain.


As well as changing the way pilots handle data by use of the iPad rather than a 20 Kg bag of books and maps, there have been other changes brought about by the iPhone and iPad, such as the ways the medical profession uses these devices. One of the earliest revolutionary apps I had was MIMS: an app that allowed users to view graphics, such as MRI scans. Keith Speights on The Motley Fool examines some of the ways iOS devices are used these days and suggests that Apple accidentally revolutionised the medical professions as well.


Half and Half

Motorola (and Google) may not be having the best of things currently in patent litigation. Recently Microsoft won a significant (and significantly symbolic) decision over RAND patent licensing - the word "reasonable" may need re-examining at Mountain View - and Electronista reports that Apple wants another go at Motorola in a FRAND patent case that had been stopped in Wisconsin. Motorola had wanted the appeal to go ahead too, but for different reasons, and they may now be regretting this as Apple's case was accepted and the appeal allowed.


Apple has a pretty good record for when things go wrong with design, Brooke Crothers argues in an article that is really aimed at Microsoft and the Surface. "But will it be able to emulate Apple's successful hardware formula?"


Local Items

On Friday, I sat down with a couple of browser windows open and the Calculator app running and made a back to back comparison of Apple online prices between the US Store and the online store for Thailand.

I converted the basic dollar price to baht, then added 7% and calculated the difference. Many items were only a couple of hundred baht dearer, which is acceptable - two products were actually cheaper - but some (like the Mac mini, the iMacs and the Thunderbolt display) had far larger differences: in a couple of cases 3,000 baht or more.

The table I created and the article, Price Comparisons between the US Apple Store and the Online Store for Thailand is a snapshot. Prices will change, the exchange rates will fluctuate, but it does give a picture of how users here are charged.



It has been about a month now since True updated its channels listings, leaving us without TV for much of one day, and confused ever since. They of course think they have done wonderfully by putting online a list of channel changes and also sending out a paper list.

Untrue The letter that this was contained in was dated 1 April (apt?) but did not arrive until about 20th of the month. However, we all moved on (or were moved on) by encouragement from True Visions a couple of months ago and downloaded the iOS TrueVisions app that has the channels and programs listed.

The only problem with this is that the data - data, not some hard-wired programming - has still not been updated and many of the channel listings are wrong. For example in the app, HBO is shown as channel 43, but on my TV (having reprogrammed the box with no help at all from True) it is channel 130. Cinemax and Fox Movies (was that Star before) are also displaced. AXN is 141 but on the app it is 52. Try sitting down after a day at the office and working all that out.

It took me three attempts earlier before True understood what I was referring to and then I was told that the query would be passed on to the department involved. True: where the right hand does not know what the left is doing.

A month now and the app is still not showing the right data.


After a few months, I just got my HD TV back. It has two HDMI ports so I connect the TV supplier's box with one and the other port is spare. I use that occasionally for viewing movies that are on the Mac. Paul Horowitz on OS X Daily looks at the problem of sound output with the Mac and HDMI as this is not automatic in every case. He explains how users may set the Mac up when connected to the TV using HDMI. Simple when you know how.


Graham K. Rogers teaches at the Faculty of Engineering, Mahidol University in Thailand. He wrote in the Bangkok Post, Database supplement on IT subjects. For the last seven years of Database he wrote a column on Apple and Macs.


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